Patience or get chopped to death: Pullbacks, soaring yields and war
A pullback that'll show us the true colours of January: A bear market rally or a bottom
The market is back to being pretty shit. Why?
US inflation was 6.4% in January, above expectations of 6.2%
US core inflation was 5.6% in January, above expectations of 5.5%
US producer prices was up 0.7% month-on-month, above expectations of 0.4%
US 2-and-10 year yields back to where they were last November
Fed officials put 50 bp hike back into play
82% of S&P 500 companies have reported blended earnings growth of -4.7% quarter-on-quarter, below expectations of -3.2%
Week in review
Sectors this week
Sectors in review
Sectors in a nutshell: Most sectors under pressure. Of the few that are holding up, they need to build more right hand side.
Copper (COPX): Holding, needs to get above the 20-day.
Energy (XLE): Went from constructive to threatening to break down. Oil prices have been heavy after rallying 8.6% in the prior week. Factors including US rate trajectory and inventory builds are outweighing China’s reopening.
Uranium (URA): Weekly trying to hold. Needs more right hand side.
Tech (ARKK): Holding up quite well all things considered. Note the big uptick in volume on Thursday (strength getting sold into) and then Friday (buying support).
Lithium (REMX): Needed to stabilise but now momentum is towards the downside.
Stocks of interest: Review
Review of last week’s charts:
Ones that went to shit:
Adriatic Metals (ADT): Back to base on heavy volumes as higher yields pushed silver spot prices lower
Pilbara Minerals (PLS): Gone to shit. Top for lithium?
Sarytogan Graphite (SGA): Breaking out but in the wrong direction
Ones holding up ok:
Aura Energy (AEE): Pullback but holding up
Norwest Minerals (NWM): Still setting up and tightening
Imdex (IMD): Holding up but needs to build RHS
Ones that moon’d:
Tourism Holdings (THL): Gapped up on earnings update
Stocks of interest: This week
There’s not a whole lot going on (unless you’re short). Current conditions (distribution and volatility picking up, breadth deteriorating, index pulling back) prove very difficult for my swing trading style. Most of these set ups are likely to just chop until conditions improve. Tread carefully :)
APA Group (APA): Base
Argosy Minerals (AGY): Pulling back to base. Its been one of the strongest lithium names amid a heavy sector. Needs more RHS
Air New Zealand (AIZ): Base
Kelsian Group (KLS): Another base, trying to break out.
Norwest Minerals (NWM) : Tightening, comments from last week; “$15m mkt cap copper, REE and base metals explorer. Note: $819,000 cash left as of 31 December 2022.”
Link to Purple, Red and Yellow watchlists.